What Does Rain Probability Mean?
Updated 2026-01-10
What the percentage represents
Rain probability combines two things forecasters assess separately: how confident they are that rain will develop at all, and how much of the forecast area is likely to see it. A 70% chance of rain generally reflects high confidence that measurable rain will occur somewhere in the area during that time window.
The most common misreading
The most common misreading is assuming the percentage describes rain intensity or how long it will rain — it doesn't. A 90% chance of rain can still mean a brief shower, while a 30% chance can occasionally produce a heavier, more localized downpour if that lower-probability event does occur. Checking the hourly forecast alongside the daily percentage gives a clearer sense of timing.